Top China paper warns of crisis risk over debt
China must turn off the taps of credit-driven growth to avoid a financial system crisis in the face of rising bad loans and other risks, the Communist Party's official mouthpiece newspaper said on Monday, citing an unnamed "authoritative" source.[CN]
“中国必须关闭信贷驱动型增长的源头,以避免金融危机,直面上升趋势的坏账和其他风险。”共产党党媒喉舌报周一引用未命名的权威资料指出。
The prominent article, in question-and-answer format, started on the front of the broadsheet paper and took up the entirety of page two.[CN]
这篇突出的文章,采用问答式的结构,放在报纸头版,占了整整两页。
China's Communist authorities are trying to retool the economy away from the investment and export-led growth of the past to one more led by consumer demand (AFP Photo/Greg Baker)[CN]
中国共产党当局试图将经济从过去的投资和出口拉动增长模式转为消费拉动增长模式。
China's Communist authorities are trying to retool the economy away from the investment and export-led growth of the past to one more led by consumer demand, and reform lumbering, loss-making state-owned enterprises to make the sector more efficient.[CN]
中国共产党当局试图将经济从过去的投资和出口拉动增长模式转为消费拉动增长模式,改革运转不灵、亏损严重的国有企业以提高部门效率。
But the transition is proving bumpy, raising fears of a hard landing, and global markets have been alarmed by slowing expansion in the world's second-largest economy.[CN]
转型的道路被证明了是曲折的,会引起人们对硬着陆的恐慌。世界第二大的经济体的扩张减缓引起全球市场的警觉。
Attempts to address the slowdown in the first quarter of this year -- when growth slid to 6.7 percent -- were largely driven by investment, the People's Daily quoted the source as saying, putting more financial pressure on some local governments.
Analysts said the comments could be a signal that Beijing is to rein in monetary stimulus efforts.
"A tree cannot grow in the air," said the source, arguing against raising debt further.
"Further leverage must not be added to push up growth, nor does it need to be," the interviewee added, warning of a possible crisis as high debts "will definitely bring about high risks".
"A system financial crisis could be triggered if no good controls are implemented, leading the economy to contract and even household savings to evaporate."
It is the third time in less than a year that the People's Daily has cited "an authoritative person" to discuss top-level economic policies.
Chinese news portal Sina has previously said that such an "authoritative source" in similar People's Daily articles could be a high-ranking government official, such as the head of the top economic planning agency the National Development and Reform Commission, or a respected scholar who participated in major economic policymaking.
"While the anonymity has been protected, the views expressed in these articles did have a large impact in China," Nomura economists said in a note.
The report implied that future monetary easing "may be more cautious and that the government may try to hasten the pace of reforms", they said, evidence that China's "debt-fuelled rebound in investment growth will be short-lived".
China's growth will continue to slow, the source said, as sluggish demand and overcapacity are "unlikely to turn around fundamentally in several years".
Boosts from credit expansions have declined and the government must "completely abandon the delusion" of trying to stimulate growth by loosening money supply, added the source.
Instead authorities should accelerate reforms, stop lending to "zombie companies" to reduce overcapacity, allow migrant workers to settle in cities to expand demand, and further cut taxes.
但如果他们关闭源头,限制贷款,整个空中楼阁就会崩塌。中国会变成2005年前后的的美国,要经受房地产泡沫的大萧条。世界经济不会经受这种崩溃,只因中国和成熟的经济体相比,市场一体化的程度还差远了。对世界来说,这事不好受,但对中国人更是惨痛,他们的房地产会降60%~80%
债务掉换如何?在世界市场卖掉债务,承诺打二五折付百分之二的利息。这把戏可以玩玩。债务要用实际资产返还,如外国房地产持有权,瑞士银行黄金储备,国有企业所获账户等等。
债券交换后,中国又可以再度疯狂借款拉。