Top China paper warns of crisis risk over debt

中国党报刊文警告债务危机风险
AFP

China must turn off the taps of credit-driven growth to avoid a financial system crisis in the face of rising bad loans and other risks, the Communist Party's official mouthpiece newspaper said on Monday, citing an unnamed "authoritative" source.[CN]

“中国必须关闭信贷驱动型增长的源头,以避免金融危机,直面上升趋势的坏账和其他风险。”共产党党媒喉舌报周一引用未命名的权威资料指出。

The prominent article, in question-and-answer format, started on the front of the broadsheet paper and took up the entirety of page two.[CN]

这篇突出的文章,采用问答式的结构,放在报纸头版,占了整整两页。

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China's Communist authorities are trying to retool the economy away from the investment and export-led growth of the past to one more led by consumer demand (AFP Photo/Greg Baker)[CN]

中国共产党当局试图将经济从过去的投资和出口拉动增长模式转为消费拉动增长模式。

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China's Communist authorities are trying to retool the economy away from the investment and export-led growth of the past to one more led by consumer demand, and reform lumbering, loss-making state-owned enterprises to make the sector more efficient.[CN]

中国共产党当局试图将经济从过去的投资和出口拉动增长模式转为消费拉动增长模式,改革运转不灵、亏损严重的国有企业以提高部门效率。

But the transition is proving bumpy, raising fears of a hard landing, and global markets have been alarmed by slowing expansion in the world's second-largest economy.[CN]

转型的道路被证明了是曲折的,会引起人们对硬着陆的恐慌。世界第二大的经济体的扩张减缓引起全球市场的警觉。

Attempts to address the slowdown in the first quarter of this year -- when growth slid to 6.7 percent -- were largely driven by investment, the People's Daily quoted the source as saying, putting more financial pressure on some local governments.

Analysts said the comments could be a signal that Beijing is to rein in monetary stimulus efforts.

"A tree cannot grow in the air," said the source, arguing against raising debt further.

"Further leverage must not be added to push up growth, nor does it need to be," the interviewee added, warning of a possible crisis as high debts "will definitely bring about high risks".

"A system financial crisis could be triggered if no good controls are implemented, leading the economy to contract and even household savings to evaporate."

It is the third time in less than a year that the People's Daily has cited "an authoritative person" to discuss top-level economic policies.

Chinese news portal Sina has previously said that such an "authoritative source" in similar People's Daily articles could be a high-ranking government official, such as the head of the top economic planning agency the National Development and Reform Commission, or a respected scholar who participated in major economic policymaking.

"While the anonymity has been protected, the views expressed in these articles did have a large impact in China," Nomura economists said in a note.

The report implied that future monetary easing "may be more cautious and that the government may try to hasten the pace of reforms", they said, evidence that China's "debt-fuelled rebound in investment growth will be short-lived".

China's growth will continue to slow, the source said, as sluggish demand and overcapacity are "unlikely to turn around fundamentally in several years".

Boosts from credit expansions have declined and the government must "completely abandon the delusion" of trying to stimulate growth by loosening money supply, added the source.

Instead authorities should accelerate reforms, stop lending to "zombie companies" to reduce overcapacity, allow migrant workers to settle in cities to expand demand, and further cut taxes.

国外网友评论 0人跟帖    4771人参与

gerd

WOW!!!! Somebody is awake in China. This guy is scared, very scared. Once China start financial crisis, the China will land like china landing on concrete from five story building. The cost or recovery, political turmoil, unwinding all these bad debts will make China biggest debtor in the world. This is astonishing, few years ago, China was the biggest creditor and becoming a biggest debtor in the world and it will drag entire world with it. They should learn from Germany, Japan, Korea, how to manage economy. I am at least glad someone in China is watching the bull moving in house full of fine glasses.[CN]

哇!中国还是有人清醒的嘛!这家伙很是害怕,怕的不要不要的。中国金融危机一旦开始,中国就会像从5层高楼直接落地那样硬着陆的。经济恢复成本,政治动荡,清除所有坏账会使中国变成最大的债务国。太惊人了,前些年中国还是最大的债权国,如今就快变成最大债务国了,这将会把世界经济拖入泥潭。他们该跟德国,日本,韩国好好学习怎么管理经济。比较欣慰的是,中国至少有人知道他们处于如履薄冰的境地。

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GoBlueGrad

But IF they 'turn off the taps' and restrict credit, then the whole house of cards comes tumbling down. China is America, circa 2005, and they will have to suffer through one of their own real-estate-bubble Great Depressions. And the world will NOT go through the same thing, because the Chinese have not integrated their markets nearly to the degree that mature economies have. It will be briefly painful for the world, but much more painful for the Chinese as they see their real estate fall 60-80%.[CN]

但如果他们关闭源头,限制贷款,整个空中楼阁就会崩塌。中国会变成2005年前后的的美国,要经受房地产泡沫的大萧条。世界经济不会经受这种崩溃,只因中国和成熟的经济体相比,市场一体化的程度还差远了。对世界来说,这事不好受,但对中国人更是惨痛,他们的房地产会降60%~80%

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nguyenReply toGoBlueGrad

china are-----FEELING NOTHING MORE THEN FEELING[CN]

中国人 - 一切都是幻觉!

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HB

Debt is how the worlds bankers keep people poor and paying them forever. Why else would they print our money for us at interest instead of us just printing it ourselves at cost.[CN]

债务就是世界银行家使得人们贫穷,永远给他们送钱的把戏。不然为什么他们印钱给我们收利息,我们自己印钱只要本钱就够了。

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Socialist Republic of California

News reports from China are interesting only in the fact that they aren't made unless the powers-that-be want that story to be released. There isn't any 'unnamed officials' in reality. Of course, they may state that in the article to make it appear like its not be spoon-fed from the government. But make no mistake, anything reported from media sources in China, comes from the government unless shortly after its reported, the media outlet is shut down.[CN]

中国新闻的有趣在于政府不让报道你就不能报道。这哪是什么“未知官员”啊。当然,在文中这样子声明让人感觉好像不是政府手把手教这么写的。说实在的,中国媒体的信息报道都是来自于政府,,不然你报道了不一会,媒体通道就被关闭了。

That being said, China is slowly acknowledging to the world they have serious debt problems that apparently need to be addressed.[CN]

也即是说,中国比起世界,在急需解决的严重债务问题上,他们后知后觉。

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Space

So let me see if I understand the business lesson correctly: Customers stop buying after you rip them off and also try to put them out of business? And now you're suddenly going to sell the broken #$%$ to your own underpaid staff, who knows just how broken the #$%$ is?[CN]

看看我对这堂商业课理解的对不对:你欺骗顾客,拒之门外,顾客不买你的帐了。然后你突然把这些烂券卖给低收入员工,这些人都知道这些债券有多烂。

Well China was right about one thing - from the western perspective, all of this is indeed, very educational. Enjoy your economics master class. Hope they don't throw you into a meat grinder to avoid their accountability, but you know, there'd be no possible way to see that one coming decades off, either.[CN]

中国有件事做得挺对的。从西方的角度讲,这些都是很有教育意义的。享受你得经济经济学硕士课堂吧。希望他们不会把你扔进绞肉机里来推卸自己的责任,但你懂的,几十年以内你也别指望找到一个很好的解决方案。

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gerd

How about debt swap? Sell the debt in world market, promise to pay 2% interest with discount of 25%. This will do the trick. The debt should be backed by real assets. like foreigne real estate holding, Gold reserve in Swiss bank, accounts receivable from state owned company and other.[CN]

债务掉换如何?在世界市场卖掉债务,承诺打二五折付百分之二的利息。这把戏可以玩玩。债务要用实际资产返还,如外国房地产持有权,瑞士银行黄金储备,国有企业所获账户等等。

once the debt is swapped, China can lend again like crazy.[CN]

债券交换后,中国又可以再度疯狂借款拉。

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nguyenReply togerd

nobody,nadier want anything from china[CN]

没人想从中国要点什么。

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Brown

After corrupt China poured billions of dollars into the hands of the corrupt Venezuela government officials who have zero to show for it. Corrupt China should try warning earthquakes, landslides and other natural disasters.[CN]

腐败的中国大手笔拨上十亿美金给委内瑞拉政府官员,这些官员不会透露这消息的。中国是不是该警告一下有地震啊,山崩啊和其他自然灾害什么的。

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nguyenReply toBrown

they say the money you give to women(prostitute) are no refund[CN]

他们说,卖淫的钱不算基金。

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Somewhere In Between

This is hardly shocking news except it comes from a communists country.[CN]

这不是什么轰动的新闻,来自共产主义国家就另当别论了。

I'm surprise the report got out, the reporters are probably already missing for good.[CN]

奇怪的是这种新闻还刊出来了,记者最好还是先躲躲吧。

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loli

It is interesting that bad news out of China is much believed while good news is suspected. I call this selective thinking which is bad for your health like selective eating.[CN]

有趣的是,中国坏新闻可信好新闻遭质疑。我称其为选择性思考,像挑食一样有害健康。

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Kamil

What goes up must come down when not controlled properly.[CN]

管理不当,盛极必衰。

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Divergent

as you read this story which is eerily reminiscent of the US subprime crisis, remember all the stories you read here up tip 1-2 years ago, about the centrally managed economic juggernaut of China.[CN]

读这篇东西想起美国的次贷危机,满满是1-2年前的样子,中国集中管理的经济霸权。

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Me

China's economy is going to become stagnant just like Japans. The government is too prideful and will keep on propping up their economy rather than let it fall. The 3 trillion that they have will be eaten away and gone by this fall. That is why they are pushing their people to become nationalistic, to hide that fact.[CN]

中国经济会变得跟日本一样不景气。政府太自大,宁愿继续勉强维持也不接受崩溃。3万亿会在这次崩溃中被吃掉。这就是他们急着把国民变成民族主义者的原因 - 掩盖真相。

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nguyenReply toMe

china sing a song-------FEELING NOTHING MORE THAN FEELING[CN]

中国人,来跟我唱 - 感觉,一切都是感觉。

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nguyenReply toMe

SOMETIME depress feeling can made you(china) become chronic constipation[CN]

有时沮丧会使得你们中国人长期便秘的。

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MeReply toMe

What? Are you saying you are constipated? I can't help you. Try eating fruits and vegetables with some fiber[CN]

啥?你是说你便秘么?这我可帮不了你。吃些富含纤维的水果和蔬菜吧。

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David

China indeed is in big trouble right now. Its economy is going to decline for at least 3-5 years. The biggest problem that China has currently is its huge debt problem, which China is trying to solve very aggressively. Unfortunately, the solution of this debt problem that Chinese government is trying will not work, and it is the biggest scheme in human history: one of tools in Chinese government's toolbox of solving this problem is called "debt to share", which means that they convert the debt into ownership of shares of the company in debt by forming a shell company to issue the shares of the shell company, then take the shell company IPO on Chinese stock market, sell those shares to public. This will convert debt into shares by ripping off Chinese citizen. This is the biggest scheme in human history and this is why Chinese government is so eager to pumping up its stock market.

I've never seen this in human history how deliberately a government trying to rip off its citizen, what a shame!

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TimothyReply toDavid

Good discussion.

Chinese capitalism was founded on putting the biggest and most prosperous companies into the hands of the Party goons and their clan, by way of gift, and those are the companies that will remain profitable come what may, because they same goons that own them also make the country's laws, and of course make policy to ensure their own companies windfall profits. This is well-known, almost never reported in Western media -- why? Because Western media is controlled by the corporate interests that benefit by the one-Party exploitation of labor in China.

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plnoyseIIvvomenReply toDavid

ao they have their wall street bankers too

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nguyenReply toDavid

IN LIFE ,you see rip-off,stealing,fool other,liar,dishonest,ungrateful,disrecpect,

is the proof of smart A*Z*Z china men HEHEHHHEEHEHEHEHEH

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nguyenReply toDavid

YOU SEE china culture is all about me nothing but,me

I urinate in the street is to my relief

I am chinese high rank official who stole money from china is for me

now if I defecate in the street is my nature call,only for my relief

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plnoyseIIvvomenReply toDavid

who care as long as chinese commie beat viet commie like stray dogs

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Go Green

----

Beijing (AFP) - China must turn off the taps of credit-driven growth to avoid a financial system crisis in the face of rising bad loans and other risks...

The prominent article, in question-and-answer format, started on the front of the broadsheet paper and took up the entirety of page two.

China's Leaders are trying to retool the economy away from the investment and export-led growth of the past to one more led by consumer demand, and reform lumbering, loss-making state-owned enterprises to make the sector more efficient.

---

Sound good and reasonable

( cutting/ filtering all the AFP 's political bias slogans, bias and discrimination words )

Cold War end long time ago, the fact is that China, With the amazing economy growth rate in the past 40 years, with the great tracking record in economic development and relative consistence in growth, Being the major trade partner with every country in the global and to all the major nations around the world, with Chinese Yuan, one of the major trading currency around the global, is become one of the reserve currencies in the world..

with hard work and all the effort of the Chinese government and the Chinese people in development, infrastructure building, technology investment , Chinese economy is and will continue to blossom and growth.

China is the major long time trade, business and development partners of US, UK, EU, Africa, North and South America, Russia, India, in Far East, Central Asia including Tajikistan and in Middle East, and many others countries and all the oval regions.

China does Not waste money for war, China does not Bomb here and there, not military drill and gunboat diplomacy everywhere, not dirty political attack on others, not demonize others to benefit self, not active stir up and carry out regime changing operations everywhere destroying legal countries as Iraq and Syria, not start war by lie that killed 100 thousand innocent life in Iraq along , making Iraqi people suffer for decades even till today. Not waste fund as NSA to spy on all mankind including world leaders and U.S. Citizens

China solely focus to promote trade, to invest and to build infrastructure, economic development, investment, provide jobs to help economy , build highway, high speed rails, provides need goods for all, rich and to those who are not that well off, win win for all.

Many Made in China products are useful, with good quality and cost effective, that why many buying them, people have choice to buy others, competition benefit consumers, meanwhile, people select Made in China products for good reasons.

Today countries and people prefer work together in cooperation, promote trade and win win, fight poverty, promote education not Cold War , nor wars, not demonized others, regime change operation to overthrow legal government for itself own benefit, to solely benefit weapon makers and the war machine in Washington DC, trying hard to make chaos in all area and region, restart new Cold War . Sad..

Happy to see China plays a very positive role in these peaceful development process with Vision of Silk Road economy belt for peace and commonwealth of the people..

Not war, not world power supremacy, not gunboat diplomacy, not discriminating any nations or culture, but solely promote growth and development is the way to go..

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nguyenReply toGo Green

NOW a day I only see MADE IN INDIA,MADE IN VIETNAM,MADE IN INDONESIA why?????

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nguyenReply toGo Green

I thought china playing bulllying in SCS????? now china become MOTHER TERESA????? SAINT ANTHONY???? BUHDA after china kill tibet monk every day?????

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ex-Repubtilian

The Chinese economy is really 2 economies one based on develolopment and exports and the other some number more than 700 million still are peasants and work the land. The peasants are the real problem hard landing means their incomes are cut and they continue to leave the countryside rootless and poor. You know the things that cause the revolution.

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Dominic J

People fail to realize it is not about financial, it is about Pollution free energy. Supporting the people requires my invention that makes pollution free electricity, water, new air, and hydrogen gas at zero cost once the machine is paid for, which is not expensive. The CCP can do what they want to adjust budgets since they own everything. You can not say they have debt, they only have arrangements and adjustments.

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nguyenReply toDominic J

I can not control my A*Z*Z fart is coming now

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RonP

China, like the west, needs to improve transparency and report accurate figures.

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nguyenReply toRonP

me chinese dont know transparent,me chinese only known HOW TO BE A LIAR

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Unregulated

Investment driven economic wealth is guaranteed to fail. America proved that in the 1920's, 1980's, and again in the 1990's. Tax cuts for the rich makes the condition worse as proven by Reagan, both Bush', and Obama.

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Peace4Asia

To migrate successfully, the CCP needs to tax the wealthy such as Premier Wen Jiabao and President Xi whose fortunes are in the billions (of dollars) and transfer the money to the poor via social programs so that more people have money to spend. If the CCP does not dare to touch its own big wigs, the filthy rich continues to send money overseas to hide in offshore companies.

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nguyenReply toPeace4Asia

I AM XIPINGPONG-----tonight I send my policia to your house ok-----how dare you talk about my money?????chop-off your head tonight you hear me

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John

When are these #$%$ gonna overthrow that piece of #$%$ govt.? They got 3 billion people, it could be done easy. Could u imagine that Govt. here? The leader would be dragged down the street, crying for mama, like quadaffi in Lybia.

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